Gulf freight in 2026: Hormuz shock, slow Red Sea return, Dubai steady

The defining logistics event of the year for the Gulf was the outbreak of hostilities with Iran at the end of February 2026. On 1 March The Maritime Executive reported Maersk suspending all vessel crossings of the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, MSC directing ships to designated safe shelter areas and suspending bookings for the region, CMA CGM pausing Gulf operations, and Hapag-Lloyd introducing a war-risk surcharge of 1,500 dollars per TEU on Gulf cargo from 2 March, or 3,500 dollars per container for reefers and specialty cargo. Jebel Ali was temporarily shut by a fire caused by falling drone debris before DP World resumed work at all four terminals.

The port came through the year in reasonable shape. DP World’s 2025 results, reported by The Maritime Standard on 16 March, put Jebel Ali throughput at about 15.55 million TEU, flat on 2024, with group volumes up 5.8% to 93.4 million TEU; the company said all Jebel Ali terminals were operating normally despite the regional environment and that it was monitoring the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz closely with UAE authorities and shipping lines. On the air side, Dubai International handled about 2.15 million tonnes of cargo in 2025, down 1.4% and eleventh in the world by ACI’s count, as Khaleej Times reported in July.

The Red Sea, twice

Container lines had begun a cautious return to Suez in January; the Iran conflict shelved it. gCaptain reported on 9 July that Maersk’s MECL service, which links the US East Coast with India and the Middle East, would again transit the Red Sea after its January restart was reversed, with an eastbound Jeddah call added from August, and that the Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd AE15 Asia to Europe service would also resume Suez transits. Maersk put the saving at about seven days westbound and fourteen days eastbound against the Cape routing, and said contingency plans to return to the Cape remain in place should the security situation change.

For electronics moving from East Asia to the Gulf, Central Asia and East Africa, the practical effects were three: war-risk surcharges and insurance on any Gulf port call; longer and less predictable transits on the Asia to Europe services still routed via the Cape, which also carry transhipment cargo for the region; and heavier reliance on air freight into Dubai for high-value components, where capacity at DXB and DWC was not the constraint.

What it means for buyers

Build the surcharges into landed-cost comparisons rather than treating them as temporary, and ask forwarders to quote Gulf port calls and Cape routings separately so that the premium is visible. For memory and SSDs, where unit value is high and volume small, air freight into Dubai has been the dependable route all year; for servers and bulk storage, allow for sea transit that can change routing mid-voyage, and avoid committing to just-in-time deliveries. Buying from stock already held in Dubai removes the most volatile leg entirely; InTechnologies ships from its Dubai warehouse to the GCC, Central Asia and Africa.