Server DDR5 RDIMM prices: a year of record contract increases

Over the twelve months to the end of September 2026, server DRAM contract prices have risen in every quarter, and the increases in the first half of the year were the largest TrendForce has recorded. On 2 February the analyst raised its 1Q26 forecast for server DRAM to around 90% quarter on quarter, calling it the largest quarterly increase on record. Its review published on 1 June put the realised rise in conventional DRAM contract prices at 93% to 98%, lifting DRAM industry revenue 81% in a single quarter to about 97 billion dollars.

The causes are consistent across the reports. TrendForce attributes the imbalance to persistent AI and data centre demand, with cloud providers in North America and China competing for limited supply and showing a greater willingness to accept higher prices than other customers. Inventories at the suppliers remained extremely low in 2Q26, and new supply has been directed to high-capacity RDIMMs for AI servers rather than to PC or smartphone makers. Bit growth in 2026 comes mainly from process migration, because new cleanroom construction takes time.

Where HBM fits in

High-bandwidth memory is the other half of the story. TrendForce’s 29 September note on the HBM market says HBM and conventional DRAM remain in competition for limited advanced-process and wafer capacity, that the HBM market will stay supply-constrained through 2027, and that the blended average selling price of HBM is now forecast to rise 121% in 2027. Every wafer committed to HBM stacks for accelerators is a wafer not available for DDR5, and the suppliers have little reason to shift it back while HBM pricing holds.

The pace of increase is now slowing rather than reversing. For 3Q26 TrendForce forecast server DRAM contract prices up 13% to 18%, noting that multi-year long-term agreements signed by several US cloud providers restrict how far suppliers can raise prices for those customers; the increases now fall mainly on buyers without such agreements. It expects prices to keep rising quarterly from the second half of 2026 through the second half of 2027, at a moderating pace. Two further details matter for procurement: some systems have shifted from 96GB and 128GB RDIMMs to 32GB and 64GB modules since the first half of 2026, and total RDIMM bit supply is expected to grow only 15% to 20% in 2027, which TrendForce says lags server CPU shipment growth. It already expects a server DRAM shortage in 2027.

What it means for buyers

Treat current RDIMM pricing as structural rather than a spike. Request quotations for 64GB and 128GB DDR5-5600 or DDR5-6400 RDIMMs with explicit validity periods and stock confirmation, because suppliers are allocating rather than selling from inventory. Where a project is approved, locking price and quantity now is more defensible than waiting for a correction that the published forecasts do not show before 2028. Specify the module exactly (capacity, rank, speed, vendor part number) and accept a mix of capacities if 128GB modules are constrained. InTechnologies can quote Samsung, Micron and SK hynix RDIMMs from stock and on allocation.